Generative artificial intelligence will change consumption habits by automating the discovery, research, and hyper-personalized curation of products and services. AI agents, integrated into operating systems, will simplify the purchasing process by understanding natural language requests, performing specific user online tasks, and continually adapting to user preferences. This process will lead to a significant reduction in traditional advertising opportunities, such as search ads, display ads, and marketplaces. Consumers, instead of conducting manual searches, will rely on AI engines, resulting in a loss of traffic and advertising impressions for search engines, marketplaces, and independent websites. Here are some specific changes generative AI will bring:
- Simplification of commerce: AI agents will streamline the online purchasing process.
- New types of advertising: AI will enable retrieval-based ads, similar to current search ads, and active intent generation ads based on user online behavior. AI agent advertising will need to be natural, discreet, contextual, and transparent about data usage.
- Changes in the competitive landscape: Changes in the computing platform will lead to greater diversification and specialization rather than a complete shift. Established companies and new competitors will integrate generative AI into operating systems, leading to an AI-focused redesign of smartphones and the proliferation of AI-based wearables. Competition will shift from consumer-facing apps and marketplaces to trusted AI agents.
- Importance of user experience: New competitors will succeed by focusing on consumer-centered products with innovative and user-friendly designs, flexibility, personalization, and seamless integration across different platforms.
- Coexistence of old and new form factors: Smartphones and other screen-based hardware will coexist with new AI hardware.
By the end of the decade, AI agents could manage nearly $9 trillion in global private consumption. AI is expected to influence 25% of global online sales of consumer goods and services by 2030. Operating system-level AI agents could generate over $800 billion in total brokerage revenues, with a take rate on purchases close to 2.5%.